Inflation by Fiat

September 8th, 2020  The Fed has now officially changed its inflation target from 2% to one that averages above 2% in order to compensate for the years where inflation was below its target. First off, the Fed has a horrific track record with meeting its first and...

Fiscal and Monetary High-wire Act

August 11, 2020 Bankrupt Balance sheets The US National debt has now soared to 130% of GDP; that $26.6 trillion equates to around 1,000% of Federal revenue. Our government will add $4 trillion to that dung pile this year alone, which is an incredible 20% of GDP. The...

Will Vaccines Become a Bridge to Nowhere?

July 20, 2020  The monthly U.S. budget deficit for June 2020 was a heart-stopping record $864 billion. For reference, last year’s deficit for all of fiscal 2019 was just under $1 trillion. In other words, the June deficit was almost as much as the entire amount...

Fiscal Cliffs and the Self-destructing Treasury

July 13, 2020  We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun. It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in on his unlimited QE and ZIRP. And, that he is...

Trampoline Cliff Diving

June 29, 2020 We start this week’s commentary with some rather depressing news from Reuters: The ratio of downgrades to upgrades in the credit ratings of leveraged loans has spiked to a record level, five times above that hit during the last global financial...

Intractable Inflation

June 22, 2020  The Fed mistakenly believes it can control the rate of inflation with relative ease. While it believes it is far easier to fight a rising rate of inflation than deflation, it is still completely convinced the puppet strings of extant price levels rest...