Separate Managed Accounts (SMA)
Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle ModelSM

Pento Portfolio Strategies – Inflation/Deflation Economic Cycle Portfolio

PPS offers an actively managed product that provides complete access to Michael Pento’s thirty plus years’ worth of industry experience, direct account supervision and proprietary investment model.


  • Adaptive, dynamic management of Michael’s investment philosophy.
  • Investment Model specifically designed to determine the Inflation/Deflation and Growth dynamics within markets. We locate where the economy sits along those five specific sectors and use the model’s 20 components to determine where to allocate funds across that spectrum.
  • The goal is to maximize investor returns by shielding them from periods of deflationary recessions, as well as seeking to provide a real return during times of USD depreciation.


The Pento Portfolio Strategies’ Model SMA attempts to provide an improved hedging strategy against inflation, while also offering protection against cyclical periods of deflation. We utilize top-down proprietary-macro analysis to position the portfolio in broad asset classes, depending on our view of prevailing inflationary or deflationary forces, as well as the level of economic growth. We then use our technical database to select the best possible investments.


Michael Pento reviews the model components on a daily basis to determine changes on a 2nd derivative basis for each of the model components. Allocation changes are made to the various asset classes, style factors and sectors when dictated by the model’s output.


PPS’s proprietary investment model uses various metrics to determine the macroeconomic environment in relation to the inflation/deflation and growth dynamic

Inflation Indicators                                                                                               

  • G-3 Monetary Policies
  • Real Fed Funds Rate (Effective Fed Funds – Breakeven Spread)
  • Breakeven Spread
  • Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index
  • USD Index
  • ISMs Prices Paid Component
  • Baltic Dry Index
  • M2 Money Supply Growth Rate
  • CRB Index
  • Benchmark Treasury Yield-FFR


Economic Cycle Indicators

  • G-3 Fiscal Policies
  • Public and Private Debt/GDP
  • Total Market Cap of Equities/GDP
  • High-yield/Treasury Spread
  • 10’s-2’s Treasury Yield Spread
  • LIBOR/OIS Spread
  • MOVE Index
  • NY Fed Weekly Economic Index
  • Conference Board Leading Economic Index
  • NFIB Small Business Index

Pento Portfolio Strategies 20-point Model uses a diffusion index to pinpoint the appropriate investment allocation. Based on this result, we will assign weightings to inflation/deflation and economic cycle investments. The investable universe includes domestic stocks, foreign stocks, commodity proxies, domestic and foreign bonds, currency hedges and short-market strategies; including inverse ETFs. PPS does not utilize leverage or margin.

Portfolio Rebalancing And Turnover

Portfolio rebalancing occurs whenever the model dictates it is necessary to move along the inflation/deflation spectrum and/or when the weightings have moved more than 5% outside of the recommended allocation. PPS also focuses on technical price levels relative to trading ranges and utilizes an active risk management strategy that seeks to lock in gains and limit losses.

The Inflation/Deflation Dynamic Portfolio and Inflation/Deflation Model “SM” are the proprietary property of Pento Portfolio Strategies; all rights reserved.

Past investment performance is not indicative of future results. Advisory services offered through Pento Portfolio Strategies, LLC. a Registered Investment Adviser.
Model Components represent the current components of the IDEC Model in the Pento Portfolio IDEC Strategy. These components are subject to change at any time without notice. The reader should not assume that investments in securities will be profitable.

This document has been prepared for the intended recipient only as an example of a strategy consistent with our recommendations; it is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular investing strategy. All securities involve varying amounts of risk, and their values will fluctuate.

Use of Benchmarks: The Inflation-Deflation model is unique in the marketplace and is positioned to benefit from cyclical periods of inflation/growth where commodities and risk assets may outperform the overall market and/or periods of recession/deflation where a short market strategies and bond and bond-proxies may outperform the major indexes. While the Inflation/Deflation Portfolio is not attempting to be a proxy for the S&P 500 investors, are encouraged to compare performance to the S&P 500 over long durations.

Carefully consider the risks and special considerations associated with investing in the Model – SMA Managed Account. You may lose money by investing in the Model Portfolio.