When Will the Boom/Bust Rollercoaster End?

June 14, 2024 How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the...

Bananas Grow in Washington

April 19th 2024 Powell and the FOMC are pining for rate cuts and to end Quantitative Tightening even though inflation is the most salient issue for businesses, according to the NFIB and ISM surveys. The Fed is still talking about several rate cuts this year and...

January Recap and a Heads Up for March

January 26, 2024 The Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle Model measures the liquidity impulse from fiscal and monetary policies. This is how we determine what will occur with the ROC of inflation and economic growth. The current liquidity factors that must be...

2024 Outlook

January 5th 2024 This year promises to be one of the most interesting years economically, politically, and market-wise in history. We have two significant global conflicts/wars ongoing, just as President Xi of China is reiterating his promise to annex Taiwan, and Kim...

A Real Estate Crash Worse Than 2008?

December 14, 2023 I often talk about the bubbles that exist in bonds and stocks and the extreme valuation levels found there. But I want to emphasize that the real estate market is dysfunctional and sits on the edge of a cliff as well. While I do often mention that...