Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023

January 3, 2023  Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in...

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks

December 16, 2022 The cornerstones in my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model are changes made to fiscal and monetary policies. Those are the two most determinant factors in any fiat-currency and debt-based monetary system. Monetary policies have been...

A Hawkish Pivot

November 3, 2022 This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and...

Rising Rates to Crash the Overleveraged Economy

October 7, 2022  The effective overnight interbank lending rate is now 3.08%. It was just 0% a little over six months ago. According to the Fed’s current plans, the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is heading to at least 4% by the end of this year; and perhaps all the way to...