Asset Bubbles Beware

July 1, 2024 Global debt has soared to a record $307 trillion, rising by a staggering $100 trillion over the past decade, and now represents 340% of world GDP. This is why there is no easy escape from the upcoming recession. The salve to bring economies back after a...

When Will the Boom/Bust Rollercoaster End?

June 14, 2024 How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the...

Bananas Grow in Washington

April 19th 2024 Powell and the FOMC are pining for rate cuts and to end Quantitative Tightening even though inflation is the most salient issue for businesses, according to the NFIB and ISM surveys. The Fed is still talking about several rate cuts this year and...

January Recap and a Heads Up for March

January 26, 2024 The Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle Model measures the liquidity impulse from fiscal and monetary policies. This is how we determine what will occur with the ROC of inflation and economic growth. The current liquidity factors that must be...