Labor Market Starting to Crack

November 9,2023 So far this year, companies have planned 604,514 job cuts, a 198% increase from the 209,495 cuts announced through September 2022. It is the highest January-September total since 2020 when 2,082,262 cuts were recorded. Apart from that COVID year it is...

Bond Market Chaos to Increase by March 2024

October 12, 2023 The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny...

The Soft-landing Narrative is a Myth

September 15, 2023 The US recession is merely delayed, not canceled. The soft-landing narrative is a myth. The government’s fiscal stimulus in 2023 has temporarily lifted the GDP growth rate. However, fiscal stimulus is not a reliable source of economic growth....

Thin Skin Mortgages

August 31, 2023 The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage loan has soared to 7.31%. That means borrowing costs are now at the highest level in 23 years, which has caused the demand for purchases to plunge to the lowest level in 28 years....

Bond Market’s Mirror Image

July 28, 2023 Bond Market’s Mirror Image According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government posted a $225 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. This means, the first nine months of fiscal 2023 showed a deficit of $1.4...

A Pause Like Nonother

June 15, 2023  The Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking cycle in January but then hiked rates at its last meeting. The Royal Bank of Australia paused in April but then had to start hiking again in June. The Fed also paused at its June meeting or at least skipped a...