by pentoport | Sep 14, 2020 | Commentary
September 14th 2020 The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and...
by pentoport | Sep 8, 2020 | Commentary
September 8th, 2020 The Fed has now officially changed its inflation target from 2% to one that averages above 2% in order to compensate for the years where inflation was below its target. First off, the Fed has a horrific track record with meeting its first and...
by pentoport | Aug 11, 2020 | Commentary
August 11, 2020 Bankrupt Balance sheets The US National debt has now soared to 130% of GDP; that $26.6 trillion equates to around 1,000% of Federal revenue. Our government will add $4 trillion to that dung pile this year alone, which is an incredible 20% of GDP. The...
by pentoport | Jul 20, 2020 | Commentary
July 20, 2020 The monthly U.S. budget deficit for June 2020 was a heart-stopping record $864 billion. For reference, last year’s deficit for all of fiscal 2019 was just under $1 trillion. In other words, the June deficit was almost as much as the entire amount...
by pentoport | Jul 13, 2020 | Commentary
July 13, 2020 We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun. It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in on his unlimited QE and ZIRP. And, that he is...
by pentoport | Jun 29, 2020 | Commentary
June 29, 2020 We start this week’s commentary with some rather depressing news from Reuters: The ratio of downgrades to upgrades in the credit ratings of leveraged loans has spiked to a record level, five times above that hit during the last global financial...
