Banana Trees Grow in D.C.

July 31, 2025 The debt spiral in the U.S. is an accelerating crisis that is threatening our standing as the predominant world power. Surging deficits are being combined with massive rollovers from our existing humongous debt pile. This is compounding into untenable...

Genuine Risk For a US Bond Collapse

The US debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at 123% and is projected to reach 140% by 2029. Annual deficits now equal 6.4% of GDP, and the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the deficit will rise to 9% of GDP, or $2.7 trillion, by 2035. The interest payments on US...

America’s Dire Fiscal Condition

May 22, 2025 We find it mandatory to now put a bright spotlight on America’s dire fiscal condition. The National debt rose from less than $6 trillion in 2000 to over $37 trillion today. Our debt is now 720% greater than our annual revenue. The Nation’s...

Priced for Perfection

May 1, 2025 The S&P 500 is now trading at 21x the projected earnings growth rate of 9% in 2025. That is an extremely rich multiple on a very optimistic earnings growth rate, given the fact that US GDP shrank during Q1. And, that shrinkage will soon be combined...

Why the Treasury Market is Behaving Badly

April 17, 2025 The US 10-year Benchmark rate jumped by 50 bps in just the 5 days from April 7th to the 11th. That is a very unusual and humongous move in such a short period of time. The question is, why would that volatility occur in the context of a slowing economy,...

The Fog of Tariffs

April 11, 2025 There was a near-record number of job layoff announcements during the month of March, according to the labor research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. There was a total of 275,240 layoff announcements last month. The level of layoffs was eclipsed...