Recession Question Answered

June 28, 2022  President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the entirety of the money printers who inhabit the Federal Reserve, and virtually all of the deep state of Wall Street are still busy trying to convince you that a recession is unlikely. Well,...

Sell the Bear-Market Bounce

May 27, 2022 Bear market bounces are violent yet short-lived. The latest excuse for an oversold rally was provided by JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon. The bank’s CEO stated at Morgan’s Investor Day Conference on Monday, May 23rd, that the US economy remains...

Powell’s Crash Landing

May 20, 2022 Wall Street, we have a margin problem. Shares of Target (TGT) fell by 25% on Wednesday the 18th as their margins shrank by the same amount. TGT margins collapsed due to higher input costs, overstocking, and overstaffing. So much for the mantra that stocks...

Perma-Bulloney

April 14, 2022  The economy is faltering, and markets are becoming chaotic. In spite of this, the mainstream financial media is busy convincing investors that the bull market is solidly intact. The 10-2 Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday, March 29, 2022. This...

The Post Rate Hike Rally Won’t Last

March 24, 2022 The recent stock market rally is a trap. This is because Wall Street is vastly underestimating how hawkish the Federal Reserve will have to get in order to fight inflation. And how much weaker earnings and GDP growth will become as a result. The fact is...

A Recession Unlike Any Other

March 7th, 2022 The U.S. economy is already deteriorating due to the humongous fiscal and monetary cliffs. These cliffs are now being compounded by the war in Eastern Europe and near record-high inflation. And, the Fed’s “PUT” is much lower and...

Powell the Pivoter Cannot Now Pivot Back to a Dove

February 7, 2022  The current Fed Chair is perhaps best known for his quick pivots from hawkish back to dovish and vice versa. Maybe he is just too dependent on the prevailing winds of the current economic data. Or, perhaps more accurately, he is most swayed by the...

Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived

January 10th 2022  According to Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange recently hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history —...

The Great Reconciliation of Asset Prices

December 20th, 2021 The coming new year will be fraught with risk due to the removal of central bank and government supports. This could very likely lead to the collapse of the most overvalued stock market in history. According to the Conference Board, US economic...

Interest Rate Normalization is Impossible

November 8, 2021 Stagflation is undermining the U.S. economy, and that poses a huge problem for Mr. Powell and his merry band of money printers. Inflation is running at a pace that is just about 3x faster than real GDP growth–a figure the Fed can no longer...