A Recession Unlike Any Other

March 7th, 2022 The U.S. economy is already deteriorating due to the humongous fiscal and monetary cliffs. These cliffs are now being compounded by the war in Eastern Europe and near record-high inflation. And, the Fed’s “PUT” is much lower and...

Powell the Pivoter Cannot Now Pivot Back to a Dove

February 7, 2022  The current Fed Chair is perhaps best known for his quick pivots from hawkish back to dovish and vice versa. Maybe he is just too dependent on the prevailing winds of the current economic data. Or, perhaps more accurately, he is most swayed by the...

Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived

January 10th 2022  According to Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange recently hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history —...

The Great Reconciliation of Asset Prices

December 20th, 2021 The coming new year will be fraught with risk due to the removal of central bank and government supports. This could very likely lead to the collapse of the most overvalued stock market in history. According to the Conference Board, US economic...

Interest Rate Normalization is Impossible

November 8, 2021 Stagflation is undermining the U.S. economy, and that poses a huge problem for Mr. Powell and his merry band of money printers. Inflation is running at a pace that is just about 3x faster than real GDP growth–a figure the Fed can no longer...

The Demand Shock of 2022

October 11, 2021  Investors are growing cautious as we approach the fourth quarter, and their trepidation is justified. Here’s a brief summary of the situation: there is a potential global financial crisis stemming from the Chinese property market meltdown, supply...

The Great Deflation of 2022

August 30, 2021  It is not very surprising to me that nearly every talking head on Wall Street is convinced inflation has now become entrenched as a permanent feature in the U.S. economy. This is because most mainstream economists have no clue what is the progenitor...

Happy 50th Anniversary Gold

 Happy 50th Anniversary Gold August 23rd 2021  Friday the 13th of August 1971 was a very important date in U.S. history. It was the date that set the table for the beginning of the end of the USD’s world reserve currency status. And, greatly expedited the road...

Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class

July 26th 2021  The Fed’s manipulation of the money supply and its cost has served to obliterate the function of asset price discovery, just as it has also caused the middle and lower classes to reduce their standard of living. Since a greater percentage of their...

Peak of the Fake Bull Market

July 12th 2021 We are probably very close to the peak of this ersatz bull market and economy. Peak vaccination distribution, along with the peak optimism about the vanquished pandemic and the re-opening of the economy. U.S. corporations are experiencing peak profit...