Fiscal and Monetary High-wire Act

August 11, 2020 Bankrupt Balance sheets The US National debt has now soared to 130% of GDP; that $26.6 trillion equates to around 1,000% of Federal revenue. Our government will add $4 trillion to that dung pile this year alone, which is an incredible 20% of GDP. The...

Will Vaccines Become a Bridge to Nowhere?

July 20, 2020  The monthly U.S. budget deficit for June 2020 was a heart-stopping record $864 billion. For reference, last year’s deficit for all of fiscal 2019 was just under $1 trillion. In other words, the June deficit was almost as much as the entire amount...

Fiscal Cliffs and the Self-destructing Treasury

July 13, 2020  We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun. It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in on his unlimited QE and ZIRP. And, that he is...

Trampoline Cliff Diving

June 29, 2020 We start this week’s commentary with some rather depressing news from Reuters: The ratio of downgrades to upgrades in the credit ratings of leveraged loans has spiked to a record level, five times above that hit during the last global financial...