by pentoport | Nov 22, 2024 | Commentary
November 22, 2024 The Federal Reserve believes inflation is no longer a concern for consumers and the time has come to ensure the rate of change of prices does not decline any further. To this point, Susan Collins, the Boston Federal Reserve President, said recently...
by pentoport | Nov 15, 2024 | Commentary
November 15, 2024 Fiscal and monetary policy changes are what drive the data behind the 20 components in my IDEC Model. The election of DJT will most likely provide for significant fiscal and maybe even monetary policy changes. The political winds are behind lower...
by pentoport | Oct 2, 2024 | Commentary
October 1st 2024 So, the Fed has pivoted once again. Jerome Powell has done so many twists that Chubby Checker would be envious. Or better said, the Fed has panicked and now realized it is again offside on its inflation target. Hence, Powell feels compelled to move...
by pentoport | Sep 13, 2024 | Commentary
September 13, 2024 The labor market is clearly weakening. But in reality, this is what needs to happen. Short-term pain is needed to reconcile the great imbalances created by decades of free money. The alternative is intractable inflation that renders the middle class...
by pentoport | Aug 30, 2024 | Commentary
August 30, 2024 While the long-anticipated recession still lies ahead of us, the fact remains that the US economy is anemic and getting weaker. Therefore, it is imperative to be aware of the reasons why those predicting any sort of economic rebound should be extremely...
by pentoport | Aug 22, 2024 | Commentary
August 22, 2024 Advanced retail sales accelerated by 1% for the month of July, according to figures that are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for a 0.3% increase. June sales were revised to a decline of...
by pentoport | Jul 19, 2024 | Commentary
July 1, 2024 Global debt has soared to a record $307 trillion, rising by a staggering $100 trillion over the past decade, and now represents 340% of world GDP. This is why there is no easy escape from the upcoming recession. The salve to bring economies back after a...
by pentoport | Jun 14, 2024 | Commentary
June 14, 2024 How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the...
by pentoport | May 23, 2024 | Commentary
The recent spate of economic data continues to point to a weakening economy but one that is not yet precipitously falling into recession. The Philly Fed Index was released late last week. The diffusion index for current general activity declined 11 points to 4.5 in...
by pentoport | Apr 19, 2024 | Commentary
April 19th 2024 Powell and the FOMC are pining for rate cuts and to end Quantitative Tightening even though inflation is the most salient issue for businesses, according to the NFIB and ISM surveys. The Fed is still talking about several rate cuts this year and...
