QE-Light Forestalls Crisis…For Now

April 26, 2023 First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall...

Destabilizing Debt Ensures the Crisis Has Just Begun

April 17, 2023 The debt-disabled U.S. economy cannot withstand the surge in borrowing costs, and the reduction in money supply growth necessary to combat the record-high inflation suffered over the past few years. Our beloved U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said...

Inflapression (Inflationary Depression)

March 27th 2023 Christian Laggard raised interest rates by 50 bps last week, and Mr. Powell decided to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps today and to keep the Quantitative Tightening Program at its current pace. It is hysterically funny that the Fed and ECB both...

Soft Landing, to No Landing, to Crash Landing

February 24th, 2023 The Deep State of Wall Street has changed the narrative from an economy that will probably undergo just a soft landing, to one that will now experience no landing at all. This specious propaganda is derived from the situation where we find CPI...

Four Reasons Why the January Rally Will Falter

February 9, 2023 Inflation is supposedly on its way to falling gently back to 2% like a fluffy snowflake while the US economy roars ahead. Or at least that is what the deep state of Wall Street needs you to think. However, the US economy is in the eye of the hurricane...

Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023

January 3, 2023  Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in...

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks

December 16, 2022 The cornerstones in my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model are changes made to fiscal and monetary policies. Those are the two most determinant factors in any fiat-currency and debt-based monetary system. Monetary policies have been...

A Hawkish Pivot

November 3, 2022 This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and...