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The Soft-landing Narrative is a Myth

by | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary

September 15, 2023 The US recession is merely delayed, not canceled. The soft-landing narrative is a myth. The government’s fiscal stimulus in 2023 has temporarily lifted the GDP growth rate. However, fiscal stimulus is not a reliable source of economic growth....

Thin Skin Mortgages

by | Aug 31, 2023 | Commentary

August 31, 2023 The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage loan has soared to 7.31%. That means borrowing costs are now at the highest level in 23 years, which has caused the demand for purchases to plunge to the lowest level in 28 years....

Bond Market’s Mirror Image

by | Jul 28, 2023 | Commentary

July 28, 2023 Bond Market’s Mirror Image According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government posted a $225 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. This means, the first nine months of fiscal 2023 showed a deficit of $1.4...

A Pause Like Nonother

by | Jun 15, 2023 | Commentary

June 15, 2023  The Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking cycle in January but then hiked rates at its last meeting. The Royal Bank of Australia paused in April but then had to start hiking again in June. The Fed also paused at its June meeting or at least skipped a...

What is Really Bugging the Banks

by | May 4, 2023 | Commentary

May 4, 2023 At his May FOMC press conference, Mr. Powell tried his hand at stand-up comedy by saying “banking conditions have broadly improved since March.” Could it really be possible that he can be so blind to what is actually happening within the...