A Recession Unlike Any Other

March 7th, 2022 The U.S. economy is already deteriorating due to the humongous fiscal and monetary cliffs. These cliffs are now being compounded by the war in Eastern Europe and near record-high inflation. And, the Fed’s “PUT” is much lower and...

Powell the Pivoter Cannot Now Pivot Back to a Dove

February 7, 2022  The current Fed Chair is perhaps best known for his quick pivots from hawkish back to dovish and vice versa. Maybe he is just too dependent on the prevailing winds of the current economic data. Or, perhaps more accurately, he is most swayed by the...

Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived

January 10th 2022  According to Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange recently hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history —...

The Great Reconciliation of Asset Prices

December 20th, 2021 The coming new year will be fraught with risk due to the removal of central bank and government supports. This could very likely lead to the collapse of the most overvalued stock market in history. According to the Conference Board, US economic...

Interest Rate Normalization is Impossible

November 8, 2021 Stagflation is undermining the U.S. economy, and that poses a huge problem for Mr. Powell and his merry band of money printers. Inflation is running at a pace that is just about 3x faster than real GDP growth–a figure the Fed can no longer...

The Demand Shock of 2022

October 11, 2021  Investors are growing cautious as we approach the fourth quarter, and their trepidation is justified. Here’s a brief summary of the situation: there is a potential global financial crisis stemming from the Chinese property market meltdown, supply...