Bond Market Rocks the Richter Scale

March 5, 2021 The global sovereign bond market is fracturing, and its ramifications for asset prices cannot be overstated. Borrowing costs around this debt-disabled world are now surging. The long-awaited reality check for those that believed they could borrow and...

When Will the Party End?

February 2, 2021 I’d like to explain why these already-stretched markets could crash by the start of the 3rd quarter. I’ve been warning over the past month, or about, that my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model SM is forecasting a potential crash in equities...

The Coming Bitcoin Crash

January 29, 2021 Bitcoin, or as I like to call it BitCON or S*H**T coin, is not gold 2.0. What makes gold valuable is its extreme rarity, its beauty, and its quality of being virtually indestructible. Bitcoin enjoys none of these traits. Of course, Bitcoin is not in...

Interest Rate Threshold Keeps Dropping

January 25, 2021 Initial Jobless claims totaled 900,000 for the week ending January 16th, after shedding 965,000 in the week prior. These numbers are over four times greater than they were a year ago. I find this to be not only sad but also remarkable in that we are...

Taper Nervous Breakdown

January 4, 2021 The next time the Fed reduces its bond purchase program the market reaction should be more like a nervous breakdown rather than just a tantrum. First let’s review a bit of the historical histrionics surrounding the initial Taper Tantrum. Back in...

Inflation Blinders

December 31st, 2020 While the Fed is desperately trying to ignite the spark of inflation, the wildfire it created rages uncontrolled. The conflagration can be easily spotted when looking at asset prices. But remember, the Fed doesn’t count surging asset prices as...

Take the Under on 2021 GDP

December 28, 2020  Wall Street is universally bullish on the economy and stock market for 2021. For example, Morgan Stanley is on record predicting the U.S. economy will expand by 5.9% next year. The stock market has front-run this optimism. The most important...

Land Mines

December 14, 2020 When the market cap of equities reaches 183% of GDP and government bonds yield near 0%, or even less overseas, the notion that one can just buy and hold a balanced portfolio is extremely dangerous. The minefield is not packed with IEDs; it is...

Pre-COVID Economy Wasn’t All That Great

December 1, 2020 The stock market and economy appear to be doing ok for the moment, as the incredibly dangerous bubble inflates further. This optimism is predicated on a plethora of COVID-19 Vaccines, projected to bring the economy back to its pre-COVID state of...