by pentoport | Jun 14, 2024 | Commentary
June 14, 2024 How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the...
by pentoport | May 23, 2024 | Commentary
The recent spate of economic data continues to point to a weakening economy but one that is not yet precipitously falling into recession. The Philly Fed Index was released late last week. The diffusion index for current general activity declined 11 points to 4.5 in...
by pentoport | Apr 19, 2024 | Commentary
April 19th 2024 Powell and the FOMC are pining for rate cuts and to end Quantitative Tightening even though inflation is the most salient issue for businesses, according to the NFIB and ISM surveys. The Fed is still talking about several rate cuts this year and...
by pentoport | Jan 26, 2024 | Commentary
January 26, 2024 The Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle Model measures the liquidity impulse from fiscal and monetary policies. This is how we determine what will occur with the ROC of inflation and economic growth. The current liquidity factors that must be...
by pentoport | Jan 5, 2024 | Commentary
January 5th 2024 This year promises to be one of the most interesting years economically, politically, and market-wise in history. We have two significant global conflicts/wars ongoing, just as President Xi of China is reiterating his promise to annex Taiwan, and Kim...
by pentoport | Dec 14, 2023 | Commentary
December 14, 2023 I often talk about the bubbles that exist in bonds and stocks and the extreme valuation levels found there. But I want to emphasize that the real estate market is dysfunctional and sits on the edge of a cliff as well. While I do often mention that...
by pentoport | Nov 9, 2023 | Commentary
November 9,2023 So far this year, companies have planned 604,514 job cuts, a 198% increase from the 209,495 cuts announced through September 2022. It is the highest January-September total since 2020 when 2,082,262 cuts were recorded. Apart from that COVID year it is...
by pentoport | Oct 13, 2023 | Commentary
October 12, 2023 The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny...
by pentoport | Sep 15, 2023 | Commentary
September 15, 2023 The US recession is merely delayed, not canceled. The soft-landing narrative is a myth. The government’s fiscal stimulus in 2023 has temporarily lifted the GDP growth rate. However, fiscal stimulus is not a reliable source of economic growth....
by pentoport | Aug 31, 2023 | Commentary
August 31, 2023 The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage loan has soared to 7.31%. That means borrowing costs are now at the highest level in 23 years, which has caused the demand for purchases to plunge to the lowest level in 28 years....
