A Hawkish Pivot

November 3, 2022 This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot. Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and...

Rising Rates to Crash the Overleveraged Economy

October 7, 2022  The effective overnight interbank lending rate is now 3.08%. It was just 0% a little over six months ago. According to the Fed’s current plans, the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is heading to at least 4% by the end of this year; and perhaps all the way to...

Inflation Peaks During Recessions

September 6, 2022  People tend to hear what they want to hear and believe what they need to believe. In no place is this more true than on Wall Street. The Fed has made abundantly clear that it will tighten monetary policy until inflation is virtually vanquished. And...

Powell’s Put: Out of Money and Time

 August 22, 2022 Despite all the fanfare and cheerleading you hear in the Main Stream Financial Media, the recent bounce in equity prices has just been a rather pedestrian bear market rally. Bull markets are not engendered by a faltering global economy, very high...

Peak Inflation is Not the Issue

July 15, 2022 The reality of record-high inflation combined with a hawkish monetary policy is slowing the economy sharply and has led to the current U.S. recession—two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The economic contraction should soon cause inflation to...